Herrera vs Ariza analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
24.9%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
0.1%
+3
2.7%
2-0
2.7%
3-1
2.9%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
7%
1-0
3.8%
2-1
6%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
13.9%
20.4%
Draw
0-0
2.6%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
6.6%
3-3
2.3%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
20.4%
54.8%
Win probability
2.2
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
4.8%
3-4
1.3%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
21.2%
0-2
6.3%
1-3
6.7%
2-4
2.7%
3-5
0.6%
4-6
0.1%
-2
16.3%
0-3
4.7%
1-4
3.7%
2-5
1.2%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
9.7%
0-4
2.6%
1-5
1.6%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0.1%
-4
4.7%
0-5
1.1%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
1.9%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.6%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
1-9
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+31%
+29%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Herrera
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 May. 2023 |
HER
1 - 5
QUI
14%
22%
64%
|
8 | 17 | 9 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2023 |
GIN
4 - 3
HER
38%
23%
39%
|
9 | 7 | 2 | -1 |
| 22 Apr. 2023 |
HER
0 - 3
BEL
12%
20%
68%
|
10 | 24 | 14 | -1 |
| 16 Apr. 2023 |
AND
2 - 1
HER
71%
17%
11%
|
10 | 15 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2023 |
HER
1 - 1
CAL
38%
24%
38%
|
10 | 12 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Ariza
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jun. 2023 |
LUC
4 - 3
ARI
37%
22%
41%
|
12 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 May. 2023 |
ARI
2 - 1
PRA
47%
22%
32%
|
11 | 12 | 1 | +1 |
| 21 May. 2023 |
GAL
1 - 1
ARI
56%
21%
24%
|
11 | 13 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 May. 2023 |
ARI
2 - 1
TOR
46%
21%
33%
|
10 | 11 | 1 | +1 |
| 07 May. 2023 |
BOR
1 - 2
ARI
52%
20%
29%
|
10 | 10 | 0 | 0 |