Hergiswil vs FC Sursee analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.6%
Win probability
2.03
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.5%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.1%
3-0
4.8%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.1%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.2%
1-0
7%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22%
21.4%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
21.4%
24.9%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
0-1
4.6%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
14.4%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
2.8%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
7%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.6%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
27
4º
14º
14º
32
8º
13º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
67 | 70 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
54 | 55 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
45 | 45 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
44 | 44 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
41 | 41 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
39 | 40 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
6º
|
40 | 40 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
39 | 39 |
8º
|
91% | |
|
9º
|
36 | 36 |
9º
|
74% | |
|
10º
|
36 | 36 |
10º
|
74% | |
|
11º
|
33 | 33 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
|
12º
|
32 | 32 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
31 | 31 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
|
14º
|
27 | 27 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
10 | 10 |
15º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Hergiswil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 2022 |
HER
1 - 1
LUZ
50%
22%
28%
|
25 | 24 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2022 |
IBA
0 - 2
HER
38%
24%
38%
|
24 | 23 | 1 | +1 |
| 08 Oct. 2022 |
HER
5 - 1
ESC
80%
13%
7%
|
24 | 14 | 10 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
MEN
2 - 0
HER
54%
22%
24%
|
24 | 28 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2022 |
HER
1 - 2
FCC
28%
21%
51%
|
25 | 32 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
FC Sursee
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 2022 |
FCC
0 - 2
FCS
48%
23%
29%
|
22 | 25 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2022 |
FCS
1 - 1
ASC
44%
22%
34%
|
22 | 23 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2022 |
BRU
3 - 2
FCS
32%
24%
44%
|
22 | 20 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
ZUG
2 - 1
FCS
73%
16%
11%
|
23 | 34 | 11 | -1 |
| 24 Sep. 2022 |
SCE
4 - 1
FCS
57%
20%
23%
|
23 | 26 | 3 | 0 |