Copa del Rey 1/32
Global 4-2
Hércules vs Real Murcia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.6%
Win probability
2.41
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.5%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
5.7%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
11%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
3.1%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
17.1%
1-0
5%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
5.2%
4-3
1.5%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.9%
19%
Draw
0-0
2.1%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
2.5%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
19%
22.4%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.9%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
12.6%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
6.3%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0.1%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Hércules
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 May. 1935 |
MUR
2 - 3
HER
63%
18%
19%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 1935 |
HER
1 - 0
CEL
55%
20%
26%
|
65 | 67 | 2 | +1 |
| 21 Apr. 1935 |
VAD
1 - 3
HER
51%
22%
28%
|
64 | 58 | 6 | +1 |
| 14 Apr. 1935 |
SAB
1 - 0
HER
51%
21%
28%
|
65 | 59 | 6 | -1 |
| 07 Apr. 1935 |
HER
3 - 0
OSA
52%
21%
27%
|
64 | 69 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Real Murcia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 May. 1935 |
MUR
2 - 3
HER
63%
18%
19%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 1935 |
OSA
3 - 0
MUR
63%
18%
20%
|
67 | 68 | 1 | -1 |
| 21 Apr. 1935 |
MUR
4 - 2
SAB
67%
17%
16%
|
66 | 60 | 6 | +1 |
| 14 Apr. 1935 |
MUR
3 - 0
CEL
55%
20%
25%
|
65 | 67 | 2 | +1 |
| 07 Apr. 1935 |
VAD
4 - 2
MUR
43%
22%
35%
|
66 | 58 | 8 | -1 |