Hercílio Luz vs Naçao Esportes analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
77.1%
Win probability
2.5
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.4%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.8%
5-0
3.4%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.4%
4-0
6.8%
5-1
2.3%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.4%
3-0
10.9%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16.3%
2-0
13.1%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22.1%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.2%
14.9%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
7.1%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
14.9%
8%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
0-1
2.8%
1-2
2.4%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.6%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
-6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Hercílio Luz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb. 2024 |
HER
2 - 0
MAR
67%
20%
13%
|
61 | 50 | 11 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 2024 |
FFL
0 - 0
HER
54%
24%
22%
|
61 | 63 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2024 |
HER
3 - 3
INT
78%
16%
7%
|
61 | 34 | 27 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2024 |
HER
1 - 1
JEC
66%
21%
13%
|
61 | 51 | 10 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2024 |
CRI
2 - 0
HER
68%
21%
11%
|
62 | 80 | 18 | -1 |
Matches
Naçao Esportes
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb. 2024 |
NES
0 - 1
FFL
11%
19%
70%
|
35 | 63 | 28 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 2024 |
INT
2 - 0
NES
35%
24%
41%
|
36 | 35 | 1 | -1 |
| 03 Feb. 2024 |
CRI
1 - 0
NES
88%
10%
2%
|
36 | 80 | 44 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 2024 |
NES
1 - 0
BRU
8%
17%
76%
|
35 | 70 | 35 | +1 |
| 28 Jan. 2024 |
CAC
3 - 2
NES
65%
21%
15%
|
35 | 55 | 20 | 0 |