Hercílio Luz vs Itaborai analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.6%
Win probability
1.7
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.2%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.2%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.5%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.1%
22.3%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.4%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.8%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Hercílio Luz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May. 2019 |
NOV
1 - 0
HER
69%
20%
11%
|
44 | 58 | 14 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2019 |
HER
2 - 1
TUP
39%
26%
35%
|
44 | 46 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2019 |
HER
0 - 1
CRI
15%
21%
64%
|
45 | 60 | 15 | -1 |
| 04 Apr. 2019 |
MAR
2 - 2
HER
57%
24%
19%
|
45 | 52 | 7 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 2019 |
HER
1 - 1
FFL
9%
18%
73%
|
44 | 66 | 22 | +1 |
Matches
Itaborai
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May. 2019 |
TUP
0 - 0
ITA
60%
22%
19%
|
41 | 44 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2019 |
ITA
1 - 1
NOV
17%
24%
59%
|
41 | 58 | 17 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2018 |
AME
1 - 0
ITA
58%
21%
20%
|
42 | 49 | 7 | -1 |
| 03 Oct. 2018 |
ITA
1 - 1
AME
25%
23%
52%
|
42 | 49 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 2018 |
ITA
2 - 1
FRI
28%
24%
49%
|
40 | 46 | 6 | +2 |