Heracles vs Excelsior analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.9%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.9%
3-0
4.7%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.4%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.2%
1-0
10%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.2%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24.2%
26%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.8%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.1%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-8%
-12%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jan. 2015 |
BRU
1 - 0
HER
67%
19%
14%
|
66 | 85 | 19 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2014 |
VIT
3 - 0
HER
61%
21%
18%
|
67 | 78 | 11 | -1 |
| 16 Dec. 2014 |
HER
0 - 3
BVO
43%
24%
33%
|
68 | 72 | 4 | -1 |
| 12 Dec. 2014 |
HER
1 - 1
FCD
67%
19%
14%
|
68 | 58 | 10 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 2014 |
UTR
2 - 4
HER
56%
23%
22%
|
67 | 73 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan. 2015 |
ZUL
1 - 1
EXC
64%
20%
16%
|
67 | 77 | 10 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2014 |
EXC
0 - 2
AJA
19%
21%
60%
|
68 | 84 | 16 | -1 |
| 18 Dec. 2014 |
EXC
6 - 0
NAC
45%
24%
31%
|
66 | 69 | 3 | +2 |
| 13 Dec. 2014 |
ADO
2 - 2
EXC
56%
23%
21%
|
65 | 69 | 4 | +1 |
| 06 Dec. 2014 |
EXC
2 - 5
FEY
29%
26%
45%
|
66 | 78 | 12 | -1 |