Heracles vs Excelsior analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67%
Win probability
2.33
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3%
4-0
4.4%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.9%
3-0
7.5%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.1%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.8%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.7%
18.3%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
18.3%
14.8%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
9.8%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-9%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb. 1998 |
HER
1 - 2
FCO
49%
24%
27%
|
55 | 61 | 6 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 1998 |
TEL
3 - 2
HER
50%
24%
26%
|
56 | 55 | 1 | -1 |
| 20 Dec. 1997 |
HER
2 - 2
FCD
54%
23%
23%
|
56 | 57 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Dec. 1997 |
HER
0 - 2
VVV
51%
24%
25%
|
57 | 59 | 2 | -1 |
| 05 Dec. 1997 |
BOS
1 - 1
HER
64%
20%
16%
|
57 | 65 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Feb. 1998 |
ZWO
0 - 1
EXC
78%
14%
8%
|
48 | 66 | 18 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 1998 |
EXC
2 - 3
BVO
24%
26%
51%
|
48 | 69 | 21 | 0 |
| 20 Dec. 1997 |
EXC
0 - 2
HEL
42%
26%
32%
|
49 | 55 | 6 | -1 |
| 13 Dec. 1997 |
EXC
0 - 1
FCO
35%
26%
39%
|
50 | 61 | 11 | -1 |
| 07 Dec. 1997 |
EXC
1 - 0
ADO
25%
24%
51%
|
49 | 66 | 17 | +1 |