Q. Europa League 3ra Ronda Final
Global 1-1
Heracles vs Arouca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.7%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.5%
3-0
5.6%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.7%
2-0
9.5%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.8%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.4%
22%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.7%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul. 2016 |
HER
1 - 1
CCF
52%
24%
24%
|
74 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2016 |
HER
2 - 0
SPO
73%
17%
10%
|
74 | 59 | 15 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2016 |
PRE
3 - 1
HER
19%
22%
60%
|
75 | 61 | 14 | -1 |
| 22 May. 2016 |
UTR
0 - 2
HER
55%
22%
23%
|
73 | 78 | 5 | +2 |
| 19 May. 2016 |
HER
1 - 1
UTR
40%
24%
36%
|
73 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Arouca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul. 2016 |
ARO
2 - 0
TON
57%
23%
20%
|
73 | 66 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 2016 |
ARO
4 - 1
SAN
73%
18%
9%
|
73 | 57 | 16 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 2016 |
FAM
0 - 2
ARO
31%
25%
44%
|
73 | 61 | 12 | 0 |
| 14 May. 2016 |
ARO
2 - 2
VIT
33%
26%
41%
|
73 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 May. 2016 |
EST
1 - 1
ARO
62%
23%
16%
|
73 | 80 | 7 | 0 |