Heidenheim vs B. Dortmund analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
13.3%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
+3
0.8%
2-0
1.7%
3-1
1.2%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.2%
1-0
3.7%
2-1
3.8%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
9.1%
18.2%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
18.2%
68.5%
Win probability
2.29
Expected goals
0-1
9.4%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.1%
0-2
10.8%
1-3
7.4%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
20.4%
0-3
8.2%
1-4
4.2%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.1%
-3
13.4%
0-4
4.7%
1-5
1.9%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
7%
0-5
2.1%
1-6
0.7%
2-7
0.1%
-5
3%
0-6
0.8%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1.1%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
-12%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
14
1º
16º
16º
29
1º
11º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
54 | 86 |
1º
|
97% | |
|
2º
|
46 | 75 |
2º
|
94% | |
|
3º
|
39 | 60 |
3º
|
35% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 60 |
4º
|
26.5% | |
|
4º
|
35 | 58 |
5º
|
22.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
29 | 55 |
6º
|
24% | |
|
6º
|
33 | 51 |
7º
|
16.5% | |
|
8º
|
31 | 49 |
8º
|
16% | |
|
9º
|
30 | 48 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
7º
|
32 | 47 |
10º
|
21.5% | |
|
10º
|
30 | 45 |
11º
|
26.5% | |
|
12º
|
27 | 39 |
12º
|
36.5% | |
|
13º
|
24 | 36 |
13º
|
30.5% | |
|
14º
|
21 | 33 |
14º
|
30% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 33 |
15º
|
27% | |
|
|
16º
|
14 | 26 |
16º
|
34% | |
|
17º
|
12 | 24 |
17º
|
34.5% | |
|
18º
|
10 | 22 |
18º
|
51% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 13% |
|
Europa League
|
0% | 22.5% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 24% |
|
Mid-table
|
15% | 40.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
34% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
51% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Heidenheim
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
AUG
2 - 1
HEI
43%
24%
33%
|
86 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
HEI
0 - 2
STP
44%
23%
33%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | -1 |
| 15 Jan. 2025 |
BRE
3 - 3
HEI
50%
24%
26%
|
86 | 89 | 3 | +1 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
HEI
2 - 0
FCU
40%
25%
35%
|
86 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2024 |
RTV
2 - 0
HEI
34%
24%
42%
|
86 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
B. Dortmund
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan. 2025 |
BVB
3 - 1
SHA
83%
12%
6%
|
96 | 85 | 11 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
BVB
2 - 2
BRE
72%
17%
12%
|
96 | 89 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 2025 |
BOL
2 - 1
BVB
29%
23%
49%
|
96 | 94 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 2025 |
EIN
2 - 0
BVB
25%
23%
52%
|
97 | 93 | 4 | -1 |
| 14 Jan. 2025 |
HOL
4 - 2
BVB
9%
16%
75%
|
97 | 83 | 14 | 0 |