Heerenveen vs NAC Breda analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.9%
Win probability
1.88
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.9%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.1%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.8%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.3%
22.4%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.4%
22.7%
Win probability
1.13
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
14%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.1%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-9%
-9%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
4
11º
15º
12º
6
10º
17º
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
13º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
15 | 72 |
1º
|
43.5% | |
|
1º
|
16 | 67 |
2º
|
25.5% | |
|
7º
|
6 | 66 |
3º
|
19.5% | |
|
8º
|
6 | 63 |
4º
|
19% | |
|
6º
|
8 | 60 |
5º
|
15% | |
|
3º
|
10 | 56 |
6º
|
15.5% | |
|
9º
|
6 | 49 |
7º
|
11% | |
|
5º
|
8 | 47 |
8º
|
12.5% | |
|
10º
|
6 | 46 |
9º
|
7.5% | |
|
4º
|
9 | 43 |
10º
|
12.5% | |
|
12º
|
6 | 43 |
11º
|
13% | |
|
|
15º
|
4 | 41 |
12º
|
10.5% | |
|
14º
|
4 | 38 |
13º
|
13.5% | |
|
16º
|
3 | 34 |
14º
|
14% | |
|
11º
|
6 | 34 |
15º
|
11% | |
|
|
13º
|
6 | 31 |
16º
|
18% | |
|
17º
|
2 | 27 |
17º
|
23.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 25 |
18º
|
41.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
1.5% | 0% |
|
Next round
|
21.5% | 1% |
|
Mid-table
|
66% | 53.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
5.5% | 18% |
|
Relegation
|
5.5% | 27.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Heerenveen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
SCH
1 - 1
UTR
32%
24%
44%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
AJA
1 - 0
SCH
68%
19%
13%
|
78 | 88 | 10 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
MID
1 - 0
SCH
47%
24%
29%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2024 |
SCH
5 - 0
RAY
43%
25%
32%
|
78 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2024 |
SCH
5 - 2
ZWO
47%
23%
30%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
NAC Breda
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
NAC
1 - 2
UTR
17%
23%
60%
|
73 | 85 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
NAC
2 - 1
AJA
12%
17%
71%
|
71 | 88 | 17 | +2 |
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
GRO
4 - 1
NAC
52%
24%
24%
|
72 | 79 | 7 | -1 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
SPA
2 - 1
NAC
62%
20%
18%
|
72 | 81 | 9 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 2024 |
NAC
1 - 2
ARI
31%
27%
42%
|
72 | 81 | 9 | 0 |