Haverfordwest County vs Caernarfon Town FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
37.8%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.4%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.4%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.6%
25.9%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.9%
36.2%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
0-1
9.1%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
20.1%
0-2
6%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.5%
0-3
2.6%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.1%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
28
6º
11º
8º
31
1º
8º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
62 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 59 |
2º
|
89.5% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 49 |
3º
|
33% | |
|
8º
|
28 | 48 |
4º
|
34% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 47 |
5º
|
25.5% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 46 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
|
6º
|
31 | 43 |
7º
|
21% | |
|
|
7º
|
28 | 42 |
8º
|
23% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 34 |
9º
|
37% | |
|
12º
|
13 | 33 |
10º
|
38.5% | |
|
10º
|
15 | 27 |
11º
|
48% | |
|
11º
|
14 | 25 |
12º
|
68.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
38% | 31.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
62% | 68.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Haverfordwest County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Aug. 2023 |
PEN
2 - 0
HAV
63%
21%
16%
|
58 | 67 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2023 |
HAV
0 - 0
PON
52%
25%
23%
|
58 | 55 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2023 |
HAV
0 - 4
CAR
70%
17%
14%
|
59 | 45 | 14 | -1 |
| 03 Aug. 2023 |
HAV
1 - 1
B36
24%
23%
52%
|
59 | 71 | 12 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2023 |
B36
2 - 1
HAV
70%
18%
13%
|
60 | 71 | 11 | -1 |
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Aug. 2023 |
CAE
2 - 1
NEW
36%
25%
39%
|
58 | 62 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2023 |
COL
0 - 4
CAE
36%
24%
40%
|
57 | 52 | 5 | +1 |
| 04 Aug. 2023 |
CAE
2 - 2
POR
88%
9%
4%
|
57 | 29 | 28 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2023 |
ABE
3 - 2
CAE
35%
25%
40%
|
57 | 53 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 2023 |
FLI
2 - 3
CAE
39%
26%
36%
|
57 | 56 | 1 | 0 |