Hartlepool United vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
9.5%
Win probability
0.63
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.3%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.4%
2-0
1.2%
3-1
0.6%
4-2
0.1%
+2
1.9%
1-0
3.9%
2-1
2.6%
3-2
0.6%
4-3
0.1%
+1
7.2%
17.8%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
17.8%
72.7%
Win probability
2.16
Expected goals
0-1
13.2%
1-2
9%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
24.6%
0-2
14.3%
1-3
6.5%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
22%
0-3
10.3%
1-4
3.5%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
14.3%
0-4
5.6%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
7.3%
0-5
2.4%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
3%
0-6
0.9%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Hartlepool United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Dec. 2015 |
HAR
1 - 2
PLY
30%
28%
42%
|
49 | 57 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2015 |
HAR
2 - 0
SAL
38%
26%
37%
|
48 | 50 | 2 | +1 |
| 12 Dec. 2015 |
OPA
4 - 0
HAR
63%
22%
15%
|
49 | 57 | 8 | -1 |
| 04 Dec. 2015 |
SAL
1 - 1
HAR
50%
25%
25%
|
48 | 50 | 2 | +1 |
| 28 Nov. 2015 |
HAR
0 - 1
OXF
20%
27%
53%
|
49 | 62 | 13 | -1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jan. 2016 |
MID
2 - 0
DER
42%
27%
31%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 2015 |
LEE
2 - 2
DER
24%
27%
49%
|
77 | 65 | 12 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2015 |
DER
2 - 0
FUL
64%
21%
15%
|
77 | 68 | 9 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 2015 |
IPS
0 - 1
DER
35%
28%
38%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | +1 |
| 15 Dec. 2015 |
DER
4 - 0
BRI
67%
20%
14%
|
76 | 65 | 11 | 0 |