Hard vs Schwaz analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.2%
Win probability
2.18
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.1%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.2%
3-0
5.8%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.8%
2-0
8%
3-1
7%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.8%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.4%
20.2%
Draw
0-0
3.4%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
20.2%
20.6%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.5%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.6%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Hard
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 May. 2012 |
WAT
4 - 0
HAR
77%
15%
8%
|
31 | 51 | 20 | 0 |
| 25 May. 2012 |
HAR
2 - 7
KUF
36%
23%
41%
|
33 | 39 | 6 | -2 |
| 20 May. 2012 |
ANI
4 - 0
HAR
71%
17%
12%
|
34 | 48 | 14 | -1 |
| 17 May. 2012 |
HAR
3 - 1
PIN
46%
23%
31%
|
32 | 34 | 2 | +2 |
| 12 May. 2012 |
SCR
3 - 1
HAR
35%
24%
41%
|
34 | 29 | 5 | -2 |
Matches
Schwaz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jun. 2012 |
SVK
1 - 5
SCH
33%
22%
45%
|
27 | 20 | 7 | 0 |
| 09 Jun. 2012 |
SCH
1 - 2
REI
36%
24%
40%
|
28 | 32 | 4 | -1 |
| 03 Jun. 2012 |
SCH
3 - 1
KUN
58%
22%
21%
|
28 | 22 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 May. 2012 |
TEL
0 - 4
SCH
23%
23%
54%
|
27 | 18 | 9 | +1 |
| 18 May. 2012 |
SCH
1 - 0
KEM
63%
20%
17%
|
26 | 21 | 5 | +1 |