Guingamp vs Caen analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.5%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.5%
3-0
4.3%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.7%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
5%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.4%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.9%
24.8%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.8%
27.6%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
7.4%
1-2
6.8%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
16.6%
0-2
4.3%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.6%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.6%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-7%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
10
1º
5º
4º
4
11º
16º
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
15º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
4º
|
10 | 65 |
1º
|
35% | |
|
5º
|
9 | 61 |
2º
|
19% | |
|
6º
|
9 | 56 |
3º
|
16% | |
|
|
2º
|
10 | 54 |
4º
|
12.5% | |
|
1º
|
11 | 52 |
5º
|
10.5% | |
|
9º
|
8 | 48 |
6º
|
4.5% | |
|
14º
|
4 | 48 |
7º
|
6.5% | |
|
10º
|
8 | 48 |
8º
|
8.5% | |
|
7º
|
9 | 46 |
9º
|
9% | |
|
3º
|
10 | 45 |
10º
|
9.5% | |
|
|
15º
|
4 | 44 |
11º
|
5.5% | |
|
12º
|
6 | 44 |
12º
|
8% | |
|
16º
|
3 | 43 |
13º
|
8% | |
|
8º
|
9 | 43 |
14º
|
6% | |
|
13º
|
5 | 40 |
15º
|
9% | |
|
11º
|
7 | 35 |
16º
|
10% | |
|
17º
|
3 | 35 |
17º
|
12% | |
|
18º
|
1 | 33 |
18º
|
29% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
20% | 2% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
32.5% | 8% |
|
Mid-table
|
47% | 72% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 9.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0.5% | 8.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Guingamp
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 2024 |
GUI
2 - 2
ANN
50%
25%
25%
|
73 | 70 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2024 |
ROD
1 - 2
GUI
42%
27%
31%
|
72 | 70 | 2 | +1 |
| 05 Sep. 2024 |
GUI
2 - 2
BRE
24%
25%
52%
|
72 | 84 | 12 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 2024 |
GUI
3 - 4
RED
50%
26%
25%
|
73 | 70 | 3 | -1 |
| 23 Aug. 2024 |
STL
0 - 1
GUI
36%
27%
37%
|
72 | 67 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Caen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 2024 |
CAE
1 - 0
AJA
50%
27%
23%
|
70 | 67 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2024 |
GRE
3 - 1
CAE
35%
27%
39%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | -1 |
| 30 Aug. 2024 |
CAE
1 - 1
ANN
45%
27%
29%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2024 |
PAU
1 - 0
CAE
39%
26%
36%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
CAE
0 - 2
PFC
39%
28%
33%
|
71 | 74 | 3 | 0 |