WC Qual. Africa 1ra Ronda Final
Global 3-2
Equatorial Guinea vs Madagascar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.6%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.8%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.9%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.4%
21.6%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.9%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.6%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+16%
-8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Equatorial Guinea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct. 2011 |
EQG
1 - 1
CMR
6%
17%
78%
|
55 | 87 | 32 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2011 |
GAB
2 - 0
EQG
70%
18%
12%
|
56 | 73 | 17 | -1 |
| 07 Sep. 2011 |
EQG
3 - 0
CTA
80%
14%
6%
|
55 | 11 | 44 | +1 |
| 03 Sep. 2011 |
BFA
1 - 0
EQG
69%
18%
14%
|
56 | 69 | 13 | -1 |
| 10 Aug. 2011 |
EQG
1 - 4
GNB
50%
24%
26%
|
57 | 55 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Madagascar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Oct. 2011 |
ETH
4 - 2
MAD
69%
19%
13%
|
51 | 63 | 12 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2011 |
MAD
0 - 2
NGA
5%
19%
76%
|
51 | 87 | 36 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2011 |
IRN
1 - 0
MAD
93%
6%
1%
|
52 | 89 | 37 | -1 |
| 05 Jun. 2011 |
GUI
4 - 1
MAD
81%
14%
5%
|
52 | 76 | 24 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 2011 |
MAD
1 - 1
GUI
11%
19%
69%
|
52 | 76 | 24 | 0 |