Conmebol Sudamericana 1/32
Global 4-4
Guaraní vs River Plate Montevideo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
42.8%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
3.5%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.7%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.8%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.5%
24.8%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.8%
32.4%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
0-1
7.5%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
18.2%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.3%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Guaraní
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug. 2010 |
SPC
1 - 1
GUA
24%
27%
49%
|
78 | 62 | 16 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2010 |
GUA
1 - 0
TAC
67%
21%
12%
|
78 | 61 | 17 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 2010 |
LQE
0 - 3
GUA
31%
26%
43%
|
78 | 64 | 14 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2010 |
GUA
0 - 1
SPT
67%
22%
11%
|
78 | 65 | 13 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2010 |
AME
1 - 2
GUA
31%
26%
43%
|
78 | 65 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
River Plate Montevideo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May. 2010 |
MWA
2 - 2
RIV
34%
25%
41%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2010 |
RIV
4 - 1
RAC
65%
20%
16%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | +1 |
| 17 Apr. 2010 |
DEF
1 - 1
RIV
45%
24%
30%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | -1 |
| 10 Apr. 2010 |
CEL
2 - 2
RIV
19%
23%
58%
|
78 | 61 | 17 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 2010 |
RIV
3 - 1
TAC
75%
16%
9%
|
77 | 64 | 13 | +1 |