Guaraní vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35.2%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
1%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.6%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
3.2%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.2%
27.1%
Draw
0-0
8.3%
1-1
12.9%
2-2
5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.1%
37.7%
Win probability
1.27
Expected goals
0-1
10.6%
1-2
8.2%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
21.1%
0-2
6.7%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.9%
0-3
2.8%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.1%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Guaraní
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb. 2012 |
RÑU
2 - 1
GUA
42%
26%
32%
|
72 | 70 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2012 |
GUA
3 - 1
IND
54%
26%
20%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 Dec. 2011 |
GUA
0 - 0
TAC
52%
26%
22%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 2011 |
NAC
5 - 2
GUA
51%
25%
24%
|
72 | 77 | 5 | -1 |
| 04 Dec. 2011 |
GUA
2 - 2
IND
59%
25%
16%
|
72 | 67 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb. 2012 |
NAC
2 - 0
TAC
62%
23%
15%
|
76 | 68 | 8 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 2012 |
NAC
1 - 2
CAZ
35%
27%
39%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | -1 |
| 04 Feb. 2012 |
LIB
1 - 0
NAC
49%
25%
26%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2011 |
SAN
1 - 1
NAC
22%
25%
53%
|
77 | 61 | 16 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 2011 |
NAC
5 - 2
GUA
51%
25%
24%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |