Guaraní vs Libertad analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
42.8%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.5%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.9%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.6%
1-0
12.9%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.4%
28%
Draw
0-0
10%
1-1
13.1%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
28%
29.2%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
10.2%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
18.4%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
7.8%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+12%
+13%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
9
1º
2º
2º
7
1º
4º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
2º
|
7 | 39 |
1º
|
30.5% | |
|
|
1º
|
9 | 38 |
2º
|
19% | |
|
6º
|
4 | 33 |
3º
|
13% | |
|
3º
|
5 | 31 |
4º
|
9.5% | |
|
4º
|
4 | 31 |
5º
|
12.5% | |
|
8º
|
4 | 30 |
6º
|
10% | |
|
7º
|
4 | 30 |
7º
|
10% | |
|
5º
|
4 | 27 |
8º
|
11.5% | |
|
12º
|
1 | 27 |
9º
|
11% | |
|
9º
|
2 | 26 |
10º
|
14.5% | |
|
11º
|
1 | 24 |
11º
|
15% | |
|
10º
|
2 | 22 |
12º
|
37.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
CONMEBOL Libertadores
|
31% | 30.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
69% | 69.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Guaraní
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Feb. 2025 |
2DE
0 - 2
GUA
38%
28%
34%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2025 |
GUA
2 - 1
JLM
50%
27%
23%
|
77 | 73 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 2025 |
OLI
0 - 1
GUA
50%
25%
25%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 2024 |
LQE
0 - 0
GUA
37%
25%
38%
|
77 | 73 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 2024 |
NAC
0 - 0
GUA
41%
27%
31%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Feb. 2025 |
LIB
5 - 2
CDR
61%
24%
15%
|
76 | 63 | 13 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2025 |
NAC
0 - 3
LIB
44%
28%
28%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | +1 |
| 27 Jan. 2025 |
CCP
2 - 2
LIB
39%
28%
33%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | -1 |
| 22 Jan. 2025 |
LIB
2 - 1
OLI
44%
26%
31%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | +1 |
| 06 Dec. 2024 |
LIB
1 - 0
NAC
40%
25%
35%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | 0 |