Conmebol Sudamericana 1/32
Global 3-3
Guaraní vs Cerro Porteño analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
39.9%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.5%
3-0
3.1%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.7%
2-0
7%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.7%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.5%
26.4%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.4%
33.7%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
0-1
9.3%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
19.4%
0-2
5.7%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.5%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Guaraní
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug. 2005 |
GEN
1 - 0
GUA
28%
27%
45%
|
73 | 62 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2005 |
LQE
1 - 2
GUA
36%
27%
37%
|
73 | 67 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2005 |
GUA
1 - 0
OLI
56%
24%
20%
|
73 | 66 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 2005 |
GEN
1 - 2
GUA
30%
27%
43%
|
72 | 62 | 10 | +1 |
| 28 May. 2005 |
GUA
1 - 0
LIB
40%
26%
34%
|
72 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Cerro Porteño
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug. 2005 |
LIB
2 - 3
CCP
46%
26%
29%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Jun. 2005 |
GEN
2 - 1
CCP
20%
27%
53%
|
78 | 61 | 17 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 2005 |
CCP
2 - 1
LIB
49%
25%
26%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Jun. 2005 |
TAC
2 - 2
CCP
37%
28%
35%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 2005 |
12O
1 - 1
CCP
28%
28%
44%
|
78 | 66 | 12 | 0 |