Copa do Brasil 1/16
Global 3-3
Guaraní vs Horizonte analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55%
Win probability
1.79
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.6%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.8%
2-0
9.5%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.9%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
11%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.2%
21.8%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.9%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.7%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Guaraní
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar. 2011 |
UNI
1 - 1
GUA
23%
24%
54%
|
62 | 48 | 14 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 2011 |
GUA
1 - 0
SAO
46%
27%
28%
|
61 | 58 | 3 | +1 |
| 20 Mar. 2011 |
RBB
3 - 3
GUA
35%
24%
41%
|
61 | 56 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2011 |
HOR
1 - 1
GUA
28%
23%
49%
|
62 | 52 | 10 | -1 |
| 13 Mar. 2011 |
GUA
3 - 0
RIO
61%
23%
17%
|
61 | 46 | 15 | +1 |
Matches
Horizonte
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar. 2011 |
GUA
1 - 2
HOR
43%
24%
33%
|
52 | 53 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2011 |
CRA
4 - 3
HOR
23%
22%
55%
|
52 | 40 | 12 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 2011 |
HOR
1 - 0
LIM
68%
19%
13%
|
52 | 41 | 11 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2011 |
HOR
1 - 1
GUA
28%
23%
49%
|
52 | 62 | 10 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2011 |
CEA
4 - 2
HOR
69%
19%
12%
|
52 | 73 | 21 | 0 |