Copa do Brasil 1/16
Global 2-2
Guaraní vs Fortaleza EC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.3%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.7%
3-0
3.4%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.2%
2-0
7%
3-1
4.2%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.3%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.6%
25.7%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
12.2%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.7%
33%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
8.5%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.8%
0-2
5.3%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.4%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Guaraní
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar. 2010 |
GUA
3 - 0
CAT
59%
22%
18%
|
56 | 49 | 7 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2010 |
UNI
2 - 1
GUA
37%
24%
39%
|
56 | 52 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 2010 |
GUA
4 - 0
AUD
40%
25%
35%
|
55 | 58 | 3 | +1 |
| 18 Mar. 2010 |
FOR
2 - 0
GUA
62%
20%
18%
|
56 | 60 | 4 | -1 |
| 13 Mar. 2010 |
GUA
0 - 1
VFC
55%
23%
22%
|
57 | 53 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Fortaleza EC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar. 2010 |
FER
1 - 1
FOR
27%
24%
49%
|
59 | 48 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2010 |
FOR
2 - 1
GUA
81%
13%
7%
|
59 | 43 | 16 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 2010 |
FOR
1 - 3
CEA
45%
23%
32%
|
60 | 65 | 5 | -1 |
| 20 Mar. 2010 |
HOR
1 - 0
FOR
29%
24%
47%
|
61 | 51 | 10 | -1 |
| 18 Mar. 2010 |
FOR
2 - 0
GUA
62%
20%
18%
|
60 | 56 | 4 | +1 |