Copa do Brasil 1/16
Global 3-1
Guaraní vs Araguaína analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
72.4%
Win probability
2.19
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.1%
4-0
5.5%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.3%
3-0
10.1%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
14.3%
2-0
13.7%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.8%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
17.7%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
17.7%
9.9%
Win probability
0.67
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.4%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Guaraní
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar. 2010 |
GUA
3 - 0
GUA
60%
21%
19%
|
58 | 65 | 7 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 2010 |
GUA
3 - 3
MAR
31%
25%
45%
|
58 | 64 | 6 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 2010 |
GUA
0 - 2
UNI
44%
25%
31%
|
59 | 59 | 0 | -1 |
| 25 Feb. 2010 |
ARA
0 - 1
GUA
19%
22%
59%
|
59 | 35 | 24 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 2010 |
AME
0 - 2
GUA
31%
24%
45%
|
58 | 49 | 9 | +1 |
Matches
Araguaína
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Mar. 2010 |
ARA
3 - 1
GUR
55%
22%
23%
|
35 | 33 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2010 |
ARA
0 - 1
GUA
19%
22%
59%
|
35 | 59 | 24 | 0 |
| 20 Jun. 2009 |
ARA
2 - 2
PAL
60%
22%
18%
|
35 | 36 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Jun. 2009 |
PAL
1 - 1
ARA
59%
24%
18%
|
35 | 36 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Jun. 2009 |
ARA
4 - 2
GUR
52%
23%
25%
|
34 | 34 | 0 | +1 |