Conmebol Sudamericana Quarter-finals
Global 4-3
Chivas Guadalajara vs River Plate analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.9%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.5%
2-0
9%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.5%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.5%
24.6%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
7.1%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.4%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.5%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Chivas Guadalajara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Nov. 2008 |
CHI
1 - 1
PUM
57%
23%
20%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2008 |
AME
1 - 2
CHI
45%
26%
30%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2008 |
RIV
1 - 2
CHI
59%
23%
18%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | +1 |
| 19 Oct. 2008 |
CHI
1 - 0
ATL
57%
23%
21%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2008 |
SNL
0 - 0
CHI
43%
26%
31%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
River Plate
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov. 2008 |
LAN
2 - 0
RIV
47%
25%
28%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2008 |
RIV
1 - 1
NOB
62%
21%
17%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2008 |
GIM
1 - 0
RIV
24%
26%
50%
|
83 | 69 | 14 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2008 |
RIV
1 - 2
CHI
59%
23%
18%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | -1 |
| 19 Oct. 2008 |
RIV
0 - 1
BOC
49%
24%
27%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |