Guaçuano vs Independente SP analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.5%
Win probability
1.71
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.9%
3-0
4.6%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.4%
2-0
8%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.1%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.8%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.8%
26.7%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15.9%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.3%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Guaçuano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan. 2013 |
TAU
1 - 0
GUA
45%
25%
31%
|
48 | 47 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2012 |
GUA
2 - 2
MAR
43%
24%
33%
|
48 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 May. 2012 |
JUV
2 - 2
GUA
50%
24%
26%
|
48 | 50 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2012 |
GRE
1 - 2
GUA
50%
24%
26%
|
47 | 48 | 1 | +1 |
| 22 Apr. 2012 |
GUA
1 - 0
GRE
37%
24%
39%
|
46 | 49 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Independente SP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan. 2013 |
IND
1 - 1
AME
45%
25%
31%
|
46 | 47 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Apr. 2012 |
SER
1 - 2
IND
47%
25%
29%
|
45 | 45 | 0 | +1 |
| 01 Apr. 2012 |
IND
3 - 0
ECN
48%
24%
29%
|
44 | 43 | 1 | +1 |
| 29 Mar. 2012 |
IND
0 - 1
MAR
28%
23%
49%
|
44 | 52 | 8 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2012 |
TAB
1 - 0
IND
29%
25%
46%
|
45 | 35 | 10 | -1 |