Grêmio vs Toluca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44.6%
Win probability
1.54
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.1%
3-0
3.8%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.4%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.2%
25.1%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.1%
30.3%
Win probability
1.23
Expected goals
0-1
7.7%
1-2
7.3%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
17.7%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.5%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Grêmio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr. 2016 |
LIG
2 - 3
GRE
36%
28%
35%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2016 |
GRE
4 - 1
BRA
78%
16%
6%
|
84 | 57 | 27 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2016 |
GRE
2 - 2
JUV
76%
17%
7%
|
84 | 59 | 25 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 2016 |
PAS
1 - 5
GRE
11%
22%
68%
|
84 | 51 | 33 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 2016 |
GRE
3 - 0
LAJ
81%
15%
5%
|
84 | 50 | 34 | 0 |
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr. 2016 |
TOL
4 - 2
VER
59%
22%
18%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2016 |
TOL
2 - 1
SLO
49%
26%
25%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | +1 |
| 09 Apr. 2016 |
QRO
0 - 0
TOL
37%
27%
37%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2016 |
TOL
2 - 1
LIG
64%
22%
14%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2016 |
TOL
0 - 0
SAN
49%
25%
27%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |