Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 3-3
Grêmio vs Coritiba analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53%
Win probability
1.79
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.4%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.4%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.2%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.4%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.2%
23.8%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
6.1%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.6%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.4%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
-11%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Grêmio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul. 2012 |
COT
2 - 1
GRE
46%
25%
29%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2012 |
GRE
1 - 0
FLU
45%
25%
30%
|
84 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2012 |
BOT
0 - 1
GRE
50%
24%
26%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2012 |
GRE
3 - 1
SPO
72%
18%
10%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | +1 |
| 15 Jul. 2012 |
CRZ
1 - 3
GRE
52%
24%
25%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Coritiba
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul. 2012 |
COT
2 - 1
GRE
46%
25%
29%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2012 |
NAU
3 - 4
COT
22%
25%
53%
|
82 | 67 | 15 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2012 |
BAH
2 - 2
COT
31%
27%
42%
|
82 | 73 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2012 |
COT
1 - 1
PAL
51%
24%
26%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2012 |
PPE
4 - 1
COT
30%
27%
43%
|
83 | 74 | 9 | -1 |