Copa Libertadores Last 16
Global 6-1
Grêmio vs River Plate analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.1%
Win probability
1.5
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.6%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.9%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.9%
25.3%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
12%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.3%
31.6%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
0-1
8%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
18.2%
0-2
5%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.9%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-8%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Grêmio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr. 2002 |
RIV
1 - 2
GRE
55%
22%
23%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2002 |
GRE
1 - 0
12O
68%
19%
13%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2002 |
CIE
2 - 1
GRE
21%
23%
56%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2002 |
12O
1 - 0
GRE
21%
23%
56%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 2002 |
GRE
3 - 2
OPE
68%
19%
13%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
River Plate
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Apr. 2002 |
RIV
1 - 0
RAC
66%
19%
15%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 2002 |
RIV
1 - 2
GRE
55%
22%
23%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2002 |
RIV
2 - 2
CHA
76%
15%
8%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2002 |
GLP
0 - 1
RIV
37%
24%
39%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2002 |
RIV
4 - 2
COL
67%
19%
15%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |