Conmebol Sudamericana Last 16
Global 3-1
Grêmio vs Barcelona SC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.5%
3-0
8.4%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.9%
2-0
12.8%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.3%
1-0
13.1%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
9.8%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.7%
13.4%
Win probability
0.75
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
3.6%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
9.6%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.9%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Grêmio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct. 2012 |
GRE
0 - 0
COT
58%
22%
20%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2012 |
FLU
2 - 2
GRE
57%
23%
20%
|
85 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2012 |
GRE
1 - 1
BOT
58%
22%
20%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2012 |
SPO
1 - 3
GRE
24%
26%
50%
|
85 | 69 | 16 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2012 |
GRE
2 - 1
CRZ
56%
23%
21%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Barcelona SC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 2012 |
BSC
4 - 1
CUE
55%
25%
20%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 2012 |
LOJ
0 - 1
BSC
41%
28%
32%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2012 |
BSC
2 - 2
IVT
56%
24%
20%
|
79 | 71 | 8 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 2012 |
BSC
0 - 1
GRE
33%
27%
40%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2012 |
NAC
2 - 1
BSC
44%
27%
29%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | -1 |