Copa Libertadores Final
Global 4-2
Grêmio vs At. Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.8%
Win probability
1.51
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.6%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.4%
2-0
10.8%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.2%
1-0
14.2%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.6%
26%
Draw
0-0
9.4%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
26%
21.2%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
8%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
14.4%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
5.1%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+27%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Grêmio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug. 1995 |
PAR
2 - 0
GRE
36%
28%
37%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 1995 |
GRE
2 - 0
EME
72%
17%
11%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 1995 |
EME
0 - 0
GRE
34%
26%
40%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | -1 |
| 02 Aug. 1995 |
PAL
5 - 1
GRE
60%
23%
17%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 1995 |
GRE
5 - 0
PAL
39%
29%
33%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
At. Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug. 1995 |
RIV
1 - 0
NAC
64%
21%
15%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 1995 |
NAC
1 - 0
RIV
41%
29%
30%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 1995 |
MIL
1 - 1
NAC
54%
23%
24%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 1995 |
NAC
2 - 1
MIL
58%
22%
20%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 May. 1995 |
PEÑ
1 - 3
NAC
48%
26%
26%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | +1 |