Gillingham vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
25.5%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.8%
2-0
4.4%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
6.4%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
5.8%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.1%
+1
16.8%
28%
Draw
0-0
10.7%
1-1
12.9%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
28%
46.4%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
0-1
14.2%
1-2
8.6%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
24.7%
0-2
9.4%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0%
-2
13.8%
0-3
4.2%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
5.6%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Gillingham
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Dec. 1996 |
BUR
5 - 1
GIL
66%
22%
13%
|
55 | 56 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1996 |
GIL
1 - 2
LUT
35%
29%
36%
|
55 | 60 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 1996 |
WAT
0 - 0
GIL
70%
20%
10%
|
55 | 60 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 1996 |
GIL
2 - 2
BCF
41%
28%
31%
|
55 | 56 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 1996 |
CAR
0 - 2
GIL
57%
25%
19%
|
55 | 49 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan. 1997 |
CHL
3 - 1
DER
72%
18%
10%
|
70 | 81 | 11 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 1997 |
WIM
1 - 1
DER
73%
17%
9%
|
70 | 81 | 11 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 1996 |
DER
0 - 0
BBU
29%
27%
44%
|
70 | 83 | 13 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1996 |
SUN
2 - 0
DER
51%
27%
23%
|
70 | 71 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 1996 |
SOU
3 - 1
DER
62%
22%
17%
|
71 | 76 | 5 | -1 |