Gil Vicente vs Estrela da Amadora analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.7%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.3%
3-0
6%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.5%
2-0
10.9%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.2%
1-0
13.3%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.4%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
8.1%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.5%
19.8%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
13.4%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
-4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
22
9º
18º
12º
17
10º
17º
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
16º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
50 | 77 |
1º
|
71% | |
|
2º
|
44 | 71 |
2º
|
31.5% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 68 |
3º
|
31.5% | |
|
4º
|
40 | 67 |
4º
|
42% | |
|
7º
|
29 | 53 |
5º
|
40% | |
|
5º
|
35 | 53 |
6º
|
27.5% | |
|
6º
|
30 | 48 |
7º
|
19.5% | |
|
8º
|
27 | 45 |
8º
|
17.5% | |
|
11º
|
23 | 44 |
9º
|
12.5% | |
|
10º
|
23 | 44 |
10º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
24 | 43 |
11º
|
17% | |
|
|
12º
|
22 | 40 |
12º
|
12.5% | |
|
13º
|
22 | 40 |
13º
|
10.5% | |
|
14º
|
19 | 35 |
14º
|
25.5% | |
|
17º
|
15 | 33 |
15º
|
28.5% | |
|
|
16º
|
17 | 30 |
16º
|
27% | |
|
18º
|
12 | 27 |
17º
|
20% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 27 |
18º
|
32.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
93% | 33.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
6% | 27% |
|
Relegation
|
1% | 39.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Gil Vicente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 2024 |
SLB
5 - 1
GFC
76%
16%
8%
|
77 | 89 | 12 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
GFC
1 - 1
CAS
44%
27%
29%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | +1 |
| 14 Sep. 2024 |
FAM
1 - 1
GFC
55%
25%
21%
|
76 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
GFC
0 - 0
SPB
15%
19%
66%
|
76 | 89 | 13 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
EST
0 - 0
GFC
45%
26%
29%
|
75 | 75 | 0 | +1 |
Matches
Estrela da Amadora
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 2024 |
ESA
2 - 1
MOR
26%
26%
48%
|
69 | 82 | 13 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
SAN
1 - 0
ESA
59%
24%
17%
|
69 | 78 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2024 |
ESA
2 - 2
BOA
34%
26%
40%
|
69 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
ESA
0 - 1
CAS
38%
27%
35%
|
69 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
SLB
1 - 0
ESA
79%
14%
7%
|
69 | 89 | 20 | 0 |