SD Gernika vs Deportivo Aragón analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
28.6%
Win probability
1.14
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.7%
3-0
1.7%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.6%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
2.6%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
7.9%
1-0
8%
2-1
6.9%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.3%
25.5%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.5%
45.8%
Win probability
1.52
Expected goals
0-1
10.6%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
22.9%
0-2
8%
1-3
4.7%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
13.8%
0-3
4.1%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
6.2%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.2%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-29%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
25
10º
16º
11º
24
8º
15º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
13º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
44 | 66 |
1º
|
53.5% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 64 |
2º
|
36% | |
|
5º
|
35 | 59 |
3º
|
15.5% | |
|
2º
|
43 | 59 |
4º
|
23% | |
|
4º
|
36 | 57 |
5º
|
22% | |
|
6º
|
35 | 53 |
6º
|
21% | |
|
7º
|
34 | 52 |
7º
|
17.5% | |
|
8º
|
29 | 50 |
8º
|
13.5% | |
|
|
13º
|
24 | 45 |
9º
|
15.5% | |
|
9º
|
27 | 43 |
10º
|
10.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
25 | 43 |
11º
|
13.5% | |
|
14º
|
23 | 41 |
12º
|
16% | |
|
15º
|
22 | 40 |
13º
|
11.5% | |
|
12º
|
24 | 40 |
14º
|
15.5% | |
|
10º
|
25 | 37 |
15º
|
14% | |
|
16º
|
19 | 34 |
16º
|
27.5% | |
|
17º
|
18 | 30 |
17º
|
36.5% | |
|
18º
|
14 | 23 |
18º
|
76.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 3% |
|
Mid-table
|
69% | 67.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
12.5% | 9.5% |
|
Relegation
|
18.5% | 20% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
SD Gernika
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jan. 2025 |
ALF
2 - 1
GER
49%
24%
27%
|
44 | 46 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2024 |
RSO
2 - 0
GER
36%
25%
39%
|
46 | 43 | 3 | -2 |
| 14 Dec. 2024 |
GER
1 - 1
SUB
64%
21%
15%
|
46 | 36 | 10 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 2024 |
BAR
2 - 0
GER
35%
27%
38%
|
47 | 47 | 0 | -1 |
| 01 Dec. 2024 |
GER
1 - 0
ANG
58%
23%
19%
|
46 | 39 | 7 | +1 |
Matches
Deportivo Aragón
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jan. 2025 |
ZAR
0 - 4
UDL
24%
28%
48%
|
49 | 65 | 16 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2024 |
ZAR
1 - 1
ALA
52%
24%
24%
|
49 | 48 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2024 |
TER
0 - 1
ZAR
52%
26%
22%
|
48 | 55 | 7 | +1 |
| 08 Dec. 2024 |
ALF
2 - 0
ZAR
26%
24%
50%
|
49 | 42 | 7 | -1 |
| 01 Dec. 2024 |
ZAR
1 - 2
RSO
67%
19%
14%
|
50 | 42 | 8 | -1 |