SD Gernika vs CD Alfaro analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.4%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.3%
3-0
3.9%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.3%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.7%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.2%
24.8%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.8%
29.8%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
0-1
7.4%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
17.4%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.4%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
+12%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
2
12º
16º
12º
6
2º
9º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
7º
|
5 | 69 |
1º
|
40% | |
|
3º
|
7 | 65 |
2º
|
16.5% | |
|
10º
|
3 | 59 |
3º
|
11% | |
|
5º
|
6 | 58 |
4º
|
10.5% | |
|
13º
|
2 | 57 |
5º
|
11.5% | |
|
11º
|
3 | 55 |
6º
|
10% | |
|
4º
|
7 | 54 |
7º
|
11.5% | |
|
|
6º
|
6 | 47 |
8º
|
13% | |
|
12º
|
3 | 46 |
9º
|
9.5% | |
|
1º
|
9 | 46 |
10º
|
11.5% | |
|
8º
|
4 | 42 |
11º
|
6% | |
|
|
14º
|
2 | 42 |
12º
|
6.5% | |
|
16º
|
1 | 41 |
13º
|
8% | |
|
15º
|
1 | 39 |
14º
|
7.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 34 |
15º
|
9% | |
|
2º
|
9 | 33 |
16º
|
15% | |
|
9º
|
4 | 32 |
17º
|
16.5% | |
|
17º
|
0 | 25 |
18º
|
35% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0.5% | 2% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
9% | 16.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
46% | 57.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
13% | 5.5% |
|
Relegation
|
31.5% | 18.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
SD Gernika
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2024 |
SNT
1 - 2
GER
13%
19%
68%
|
44 | 22 | 22 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
BAR
3 - 2
GER
71%
17%
12%
|
44 | 56 | 12 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2024 |
GER
0 - 1
BAR
44%
27%
29%
|
45 | 46 | 1 | -1 |
| 28 Apr. 2024 |
ATH
3 - 1
GER
71%
18%
11%
|
45 | 58 | 13 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2024 |
GER
0 - 2
UDL
22%
28%
50%
|
46 | 60 | 14 | -1 |
Matches
CD Alfaro
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
ARN
0 - 0
ALF
13%
19%
69%
|
42 | 24 | 18 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2024 |
SJU
1 - 0
ALF
34%
25%
41%
|
42 | 43 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2024 |
IZA
1 - 2
ALF
36%
25%
39%
|
42 | 44 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 May. 2024 |
ALF
2 - 2
OYO
62%
21%
16%
|
42 | 35 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 May. 2024 |
OYO
4 - 1
ALF
13%
20%
68%
|
44 | 31 | 13 | -2 |