Joane vs Vila Real analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
14.2%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.6%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
+3
0.9%
2-0
1.9%
3-1
1.2%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.4%
1-0
4.1%
2-1
4%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
9.7%
19.1%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
9%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.1%
66.7%
Win probability
2.18
Expected goals
0-1
10.1%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.7%
0-2
11%
1-3
7.1%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
20.1%
0-3
8%
1-4
3.9%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.1%
-3
12.7%
0-4
4.3%
1-5
1.7%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
6.3%
0-5
1.9%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.6%
0-6
0.7%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.9%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+93%
+110%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
9
4º
14º
14º
6
3º
10º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
7º
|
6 | 47 |
1º
|
22% | |
|
3º
|
9 | 47 |
2º
|
16% | |
|
2º
|
9 | 45 |
3º
|
15% | |
|
6º
|
6 | 39 |
4º
|
11% | |
|
|
8º
|
6 | 38 |
5º
|
12% | |
|
11º
|
4 | 38 |
6º
|
11.5% | |
|
9º
|
4 | 36 |
7º
|
9% | |
|
13º
|
3 | 33 |
8º
|
11% | |
|
14º
|
1 | 33 |
9º
|
7% | |
|
12º
|
3 | 32 |
10º
|
8% | |
|
10º
|
4 | 30 |
11º
|
10.5% | |
|
5º
|
7 | 30 |
12º
|
10% | |
|
1º
|
10 | 30 |
13º
|
14% | |
|
|
4º
|
9 | 29 |
14º
|
17.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
1.5% | 15% |
|
Mid-table
|
31% | 61% |
|
Relegation
|
67.5% | 24% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Joane
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
JOA
0 - 3
FAF
15%
19%
66%
|
17 | 42 | 25 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
JOA
0 - 3
BEL
5%
11%
84%
|
17 | 61 | 44 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2022 |
SCF
2 - 3
JOA
68%
20%
13%
|
16 | 45 | 29 | +1 |
| 11 Sep. 2021 |
BSC
2 - 1
JOA
72%
16%
12%
|
16 | 30 | 14 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2019 |
JOA
1 - 1
TAI
37%
24%
40%
|
16 | 18 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Vila Real
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr. 2024 |
VIL
1 - 0
TIR
34%
27%
39%
|
37 | 42 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2024 |
MON
0 - 0
VIL
41%
24%
35%
|
37 | 35 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
VIL
2 - 0
BRI
44%
23%
33%
|
36 | 37 | 1 | +1 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
POR
1 - 1
VIL
39%
23%
38%
|
36 | 32 | 4 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
VIL
0 - 0
MAR
29%
26%
45%
|
35 | 41 | 6 | +1 |