Wales U21 vs Italy U21 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
16.9%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.7%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1%
2-0
2.4%
3-1
1.3%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
4%
1-0
5.8%
2-1
4.5%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.6%
22.4%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.4%
60.8%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
0-1
12.5%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
25.2%
0-2
11.5%
1-3
6%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.1%
-2
18.8%
0-3
7.1%
1-4
2.7%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
10.3%
0-4
3.2%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.1%
-4
4.4%
0-5
1.2%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.5%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Wales U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug. 2009 |
WLS
4 - 1
HUN
45%
25%
31%
|
56 | 58 | 2 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 2009 |
WLS
5 - 1
LUX
76%
16%
9%
|
56 | 20 | 36 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 2009 |
LUX
0 - 0
WLS
19%
22%
59%
|
56 | 19 | 37 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2008 |
ENG
2 - 2
WLS
76%
16%
8%
|
55 | 78 | 23 | +1 |
| 10 Oct. 2008 |
WLS
2 - 3
ENG
18%
24%
58%
|
56 | 78 | 22 | -1 |
Matches
Italy U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug. 2009 |
RUS
3 - 2
ITA
28%
24%
48%
|
81 | 67 | 14 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2009 |
ITA
0 - 1
DEU
52%
24%
24%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | -1 |
| 23 Jun. 2009 |
BLR
1 - 2
ITA
17%
22%
61%
|
82 | 64 | 18 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 2009 |
SWE
1 - 2
ITA
24%
24%
52%
|
81 | 70 | 11 | +1 |
| 16 Jun. 2009 |
ITA
0 - 0
SRB
68%
20%
13%
|
82 | 68 | 14 | -1 |