Gagra vs Samgurali analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
29.3%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.7%
3-0
1.8%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.7%
2-0
4.7%
3-1
2.7%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.1%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
7%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.6%
25.8%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.8%
44.9%
Win probability
1.48
Expected goals
0-1
10.7%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
22.8%
0-2
7.9%
1-3
4.5%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
13.5%
0-3
3.9%
1-4
1.7%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
5.9%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
24
6º
10º
8º
30
5º
10º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
48 | 67 |
1º
|
43.5% | |
|
2º
|
45 | 66 |
2º
|
36.5% | |
|
3º
|
45 | 66 |
3º
|
29% | |
|
4º
|
35 | 56 |
4º
|
65% | |
|
|
5º
|
30 | 48 |
5º
|
35% | |
|
7º
|
27 | 45 |
6º
|
34% | |
|
6º
|
28 | 43 |
7º
|
37% | |
|
|
8º
|
24 | 36 |
8º
|
37% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 35 |
9º
|
38% | |
|
10º
|
16 | 25 |
10º
|
84.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase (1st r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 2% |
|
Mid-table
|
11.5% | 93.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
83.5% | 4.5% |
|
Relegation
|
5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Gagra
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
SAM
1 - 3
GAG
50%
24%
25%
|
58 | 59 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2024 |
KOL
2 - 1
GAG
58%
23%
19%
|
59 | 65 | 6 | -1 |
| 07 Mar. 2024 |
GAG
1 - 3
DBA
18%
23%
59%
|
59 | 75 | 16 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
GOR
2 - 0
GAG
69%
20%
11%
|
59 | 74 | 15 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2024 |
LOK
7 - 2
GAG
32%
24%
44%
|
59 | 53 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Samgurali
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar. 2024 |
SAM
1 - 1
KOL
46%
26%
28%
|
68 | 66 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2024 |
DBA
1 - 0
SAM
64%
20%
16%
|
68 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 07 Mar. 2024 |
SAM
0 - 1
GOR
34%
28%
38%
|
69 | 75 | 6 | -1 |
| 02 Mar. 2024 |
DTB
2 - 0
SAM
64%
20%
16%
|
69 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2024 |
TOB
0 - 1
SAM
49%
24%
27%
|
69 | 75 | 6 | 0 |