Fuentes vs Fraga analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
37%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.7%
3-0
2.6%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
4.8%
2-0
5.1%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
10.9%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19%
23.6%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
6.6%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.6%
39.4%
Win probability
1.61
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
3.5%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19.7%
0-2
5.5%
1-3
4.6%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
11.7%
0-3
2.9%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
5.3%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.9%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
+3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
7
3º
17º
16º
2
8º
18º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
18º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
7º
|
4 | 63 |
1º
|
23.5% | |
|
1º
|
9 | 61 |
2º
|
14.5% | |
|
2º
|
7 | 59 |
3º
|
11% | |
|
5º
|
5 | 58 |
4º
|
13.5% | |
|
6º
|
4 | 56 |
5º
|
8.5% | |
|
10º
|
3 | 55 |
6º
|
11% | |
|
13º
|
3 | 51 |
7º
|
10% | |
|
|
18º
|
2 | 47 |
8º
|
7.5% | |
|
14º
|
3 | 46 |
9º
|
9% | |
|
4º
|
5 | 45 |
10º
|
8% | |
|
17º
|
2 | 44 |
11º
|
7% | |
|
16º
|
2 | 42 |
12º
|
4.5% | |
|
15º
|
2 | 39 |
13º
|
8% | |
|
11º
|
3 | 39 |
14º
|
8% | |
|
8º
|
4 | 38 |
15º
|
10.5% | |
|
|
3º
|
7 | 37 |
16º
|
10% | |
|
12º
|
3 | 36 |
17º
|
13% | |
|
9º
|
3 | 34 |
18º
|
16% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 3.5% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
6.5% | 24% |
|
Mid-table
|
60.5% | 59.5% |
|
Relegation
|
33% | 13% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fuentes
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
FUE
1 - 0
CDE
17%
23%
61%
|
24 | 43 | 19 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
CUA
0 - 0
FUE
68%
19%
13%
|
23 | 38 | 15 | +1 |
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
FUE
1 - 0
BEL
35%
25%
41%
|
22 | 26 | 4 | +1 |
| 12 May. 2024 |
FUE
0 - 2
CUA
22%
24%
54%
|
23 | 37 | 14 | -1 |
| 05 May. 2024 |
BIN
1 - 0
FUE
43%
24%
33%
|
24 | 25 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Fraga
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
CAL
2 - 2
FRA
41%
25%
35%
|
29 | 31 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
FRA
0 - 3
ATL
55%
23%
22%
|
30 | 29 | 1 | -1 |
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
CFB
2 - 2
FRA
37%
25%
39%
|
30 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2024 |
FRA
1 - 1
CAS
41%
25%
34%
|
30 | 33 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2024 |
BEL
2 - 0
FRA
21%
22%
57%
|
32 | 24 | 8 | -2 |