Série D Brazil Last 16
Global 2-1
Friburguense vs Ceilândia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.8%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
3%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.8%
2-0
11.8%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.5%
1-0
13.4%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.6%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.2%
17%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
11.9%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Friburguense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Sep. 2012 |
CEI
0 - 0
FRI
37%
26%
37%
|
52 | 46 | 6 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2012 |
FRI
6 - 0
GUA
55%
25%
21%
|
51 | 46 | 5 | +1 |
| 19 Aug. 2012 |
VOL
0 - 0
FRI
43%
27%
31%
|
52 | 51 | 1 | -1 |
| 12 Aug. 2012 |
FRI
2 - 1
ARA
51%
25%
24%
|
51 | 49 | 2 | +1 |
| 07 Aug. 2012 |
NEC
1 - 1
FRI
50%
24%
26%
|
51 | 50 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Ceilândia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Sep. 2012 |
CEI
0 - 0
FRI
37%
26%
37%
|
46 | 52 | 6 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2012 |
CEI
2 - 4
APA
53%
23%
24%
|
47 | 46 | 1 | -1 |
| 19 Aug. 2012 |
CEN
3 - 1
CEI
55%
23%
21%
|
48 | 49 | 1 | -1 |
| 04 Aug. 2012 |
CEI
1 - 0
CRA
44%
25%
31%
|
48 | 49 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2012 |
SOB
2 - 3
CEI
67%
20%
13%
|
47 | 55 | 8 | +1 |