Fréjus St-Raphaël vs Marignane Gignac analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
29.3%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.8%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2.4%
2-0
5.1%
3-1
2.3%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
7.8%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
6.7%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.3%
27.7%
Draw
0-0
9.6%
1-1
13%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.7%
43%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
0-1
12.6%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
23.3%
0-2
8.3%
1-3
3.7%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
12.7%
0-3
3.6%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
5%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.5%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
-11%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
26
1º
6º
5º
22
2º
12º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
9º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
5º
|
25 | 55 |
1º
|
53.5% | |
|
2º
|
28 | 52 |
2º
|
32.5% | |
|
3º
|
27 | 48 |
3º
|
19.5% | |
|
1º
|
29 | 47 |
4º
|
15.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
26 | 43 |
5º
|
12.5% | |
|
6º
|
23 | 42 |
6º
|
13% | |
|
7º
|
23 | 42 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
|
9º
|
22 | 41 |
8º
|
10.5% | |
|
8º
|
22 | 40 |
9º
|
8.5% | |
|
10º
|
22 | 37 |
10º
|
10.5% | |
|
13º
|
18 | 36 |
11º
|
9% | |
|
12º
|
19 | 35 |
12º
|
14% | |
|
11º
|
21 | 34 |
13º
|
9.5% | |
|
16º
|
6 | 34 |
14º
|
15% | |
|
14º
|
17 | 33 |
15º
|
16% | |
|
15º
|
14 | 26 |
16º
|
70% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
1% | 0.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
91% | 88.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
6% | 5.5% |
|
Relegation
|
2% | 5.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fréjus St-Raphaël
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Dec. 2024 |
JUR
3 - 1
FRE
46%
27%
27%
|
54 | 52 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 2024 |
FRE
1 - 1
LPV
23%
29%
48%
|
54 | 63 | 9 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 2024 |
RVA
1 - 0
FRE
45%
27%
28%
|
54 | 53 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Nov. 2024 |
FRE
1 - 0
AND
46%
28%
26%
|
54 | 50 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 2024 |
CAN
2 - 2
FRE
46%
27%
27%
|
53 | 52 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Marignane Gignac
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Dec. 2024 |
MGG
1 - 0
ANG
49%
27%
24%
|
56 | 53 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 2024 |
HYE
1 - 1
MGG
36%
28%
37%
|
56 | 55 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 2024 |
MGG
1 - 2
LES
64%
23%
13%
|
56 | 44 | 12 | 0 |
| 23 Nov. 2024 |
SAI
1 - 0
MGG
29%
26%
46%
|
57 | 49 | 8 | -1 |
| 16 Nov. 2024 |
VCF
1 - 0
MGG
7%
13%
81%
|
57 | 8 | 49 | 0 |