Copa do Brasil 1/16
Global 3-2
Fortaleza EC vs Paraná analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.3%
Win probability
1.82
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.2%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.7%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
15%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22%
22.9%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
22.9%
27.8%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
15.9%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
7.9%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.9%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fortaleza EC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr. 2009 |
FOR
3 - 2
BOV
78%
14%
8%
|
62 | 43 | 19 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2009 |
BOV
0 - 3
FOR
24%
23%
53%
|
62 | 44 | 18 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2009 |
HOR
1 - 1
FOR
23%
23%
54%
|
62 | 47 | 15 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2009 |
FOR
3 - 2
MAR
79%
14%
8%
|
62 | 47 | 15 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 2009 |
ITA
2 - 4
FOR
21%
24%
55%
|
62 | 41 | 21 | 0 |
Matches
Paraná
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr. 2009 |
COT
2 - 0
PAR
62%
22%
16%
|
63 | 76 | 13 | 0 |
| 08 Apr. 2009 |
PAR
3 - 1
ACP
71%
18%
11%
|
63 | 47 | 16 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2009 |
NPR
0 - 0
PAR
16%
20%
64%
|
63 | 44 | 19 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 2009 |
PAR
1 - 0
CIA
65%
20%
15%
|
63 | 51 | 12 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2009 |
PAR
4 - 1
IGU
71%
18%
10%
|
63 | 36 | 27 | 0 |