Cearense 1 Final
Global 6-3
Fortaleza EC vs Guarany de Sobral analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
76.6%
Win probability
2.65
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.1%
5-0
3.4%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.9%
4-0
6.5%
5-1
2.8%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
9.8%
3-0
9.8%
4-1
5.2%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.3%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.4%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.1%
14.4%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
6.7%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
14.4%
8.9%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
0-1
2.5%
1-2
2.7%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
6.4%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fortaleza EC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr. 2009 |
GUA
1 - 4
FOR
25%
24%
51%
|
63 | 51 | 12 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2009 |
FOR
2 - 1
PAR
49%
23%
28%
|
63 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 2009 |
FOR
3 - 2
BOV
78%
14%
8%
|
62 | 43 | 19 | +1 |
| 09 Apr. 2009 |
BOV
0 - 3
FOR
24%
23%
53%
|
62 | 44 | 18 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2009 |
HOR
1 - 1
FOR
23%
23%
54%
|
62 | 47 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Guarany de Sobral
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr. 2009 |
GUA
1 - 4
FOR
25%
24%
51%
|
51 | 63 | 12 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 2009 |
GUA
1 - 0
FER
38%
25%
37%
|
50 | 52 | 2 | +1 |
| 10 Apr. 2009 |
FER
0 - 0
GUA
55%
22%
23%
|
50 | 52 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2009 |
BOV
4 - 2
GUA
35%
25%
41%
|
51 | 42 | 9 | -1 |
| 28 Mar. 2009 |
CEA
4 - 3
GUA
68%
19%
13%
|
51 | 61 | 10 | 0 |