Copa do Brasil 1/32
Global 6-2
Fortaleza EC vs Comercial PI analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
79.1%
Win probability
2.68
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.7%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.3%
5-0
3.9%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.3%
4-0
7.3%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
10.5%
3-0
10.9%
4-1
5.1%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
17.1%
2-0
12.2%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.9%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.8%
13.5%
Draw
0-0
3.4%
1-1
6.4%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
13.5%
7.4%
Win probability
0.71
Expected goals
0-1
2.4%
1-2
2.3%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
5.5%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.5%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fortaleza EC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar. 2012 |
HOR
1 - 0
FOR
36%
25%
39%
|
62 | 56 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2012 |
FOR
2 - 0
ITA
78%
14%
8%
|
62 | 43 | 19 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2012 |
GUA
2 - 3
FOR
27%
25%
48%
|
61 | 51 | 10 | +1 |
| 08 Mar. 2012 |
CAC
2 - 3
FOR
16%
22%
61%
|
61 | 42 | 19 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 2012 |
FOR
1 - 0
TRA
83%
12%
5%
|
61 | 37 | 24 | 0 |
Matches
Comercial PI
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar. 2012 |
CAC
2 - 3
FOR
16%
22%
61%
|
42 | 61 | 19 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2011 |
CAC
1 - 2
IND
42%
26%
33%
|
43 | 45 | 2 | -1 |
| 04 Sep. 2011 |
SAM
3 - 0
CAC
64%
21%
15%
|
44 | 52 | 8 | -1 |
| 28 Aug. 2011 |
CAC
0 - 3
REC
47%
26%
27%
|
46 | 43 | 3 | -2 |
| 23 Aug. 2011 |
TDC
1 - 1
CAC
33%
27%
41%
|
46 | 41 | 5 | 0 |