Forli vs Castiglione analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.9%
Win probability
1.8
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.5%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.6%
2-0
9%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.5%
1-0
10%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.6%
23.1%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
23.1%
22.9%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
6%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.3%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.1%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Forli
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Mar. 2013 |
FOR
0 - 1
REN
48%
25%
27%
|
38 | 36 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2013 |
SAV
2 - 0
FOR
45%
26%
30%
|
39 | 41 | 2 | -1 |
| 03 Mar. 2013 |
PRO
0 - 0
FOR
59%
21%
20%
|
39 | 42 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 2013 |
FOR
2 - 0
RIM
62%
21%
16%
|
39 | 31 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2013 |
FAN
1 - 5
FOR
16%
22%
63%
|
38 | 21 | 17 | +1 |
Matches
Castiglione
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar. 2013 |
FCC
0 - 0
USA
44%
25%
31%
|
35 | 34 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2013 |
SAN
2 - 1
FCC
39%
25%
36%
|
36 | 30 | 6 | -1 |
| 24 Feb. 2013 |
FCC
1 - 2
FAN
70%
18%
11%
|
36 | 20 | 16 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2013 |
MIL
1 - 1
FCC
17%
23%
60%
|
37 | 17 | 20 | -1 |
| 02 Feb. 2013 |
FCC
0 - 2
PRO
37%
26%
37%
|
38 | 41 | 3 | -1 |