Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 6-1
Fluminense vs Universidad Católica analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.9%
Win probability
1.71
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.9%
3-0
4.7%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.5%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.2%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.8%
26.2%
Win probability
1.18
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15.8%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.2%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fluminense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun. 2017 |
SAO
1 - 1
FLU
44%
26%
30%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Jun. 2017 |
AVA
0 - 3
FLU
22%
26%
52%
|
78 | 66 | 12 | +1 |
| 18 Jun. 2017 |
FLU
2 - 2
FLA
39%
26%
35%
|
78 | 84 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 2017 |
FLU
0 - 2
GRE
36%
25%
39%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | -1 |
| 10 Jun. 2017 |
PAL
3 - 1
FLU
59%
22%
19%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Universidad Católica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jun. 2017 |
UCE
1 - 1
NAC
61%
22%
18%
|
77 | 71 | 6 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 2017 |
UCE
4 - 0
RIV
59%
23%
19%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Jun. 2017 |
DEL
3 - 1
UCE
44%
26%
30%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 May. 2017 |
UCE
3 - 0
PET
69%
19%
12%
|
77 | 63 | 14 | 0 |
| 26 May. 2017 |
IVT
1 - 0
UCE
50%
24%
25%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |