Carioca 1 Final
Global 5-1
Fluminense vs Botafogo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.6%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.4%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.5%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.4%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.7%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
11%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
23.4%
23%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
6%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.4%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.1%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fluminense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr. 2012 |
SCI
0 - 0
FLU
52%
24%
24%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 2012 |
ARS
1 - 2
FLU
30%
24%
46%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 2012 |
FLU
5 - 1
OLA
84%
12%
4%
|
83 | 54 | 29 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 2012 |
FLU
0 - 2
BOC
51%
25%
24%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2012 |
MAD
1 - 2
FLU
12%
20%
69%
|
83 | 51 | 32 | 0 |
Matches
Botafogo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May. 2012 |
VIT
1 - 1
BOT
36%
25%
39%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2012 |
BOT
3 - 1
VAS
47%
24%
29%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2012 |
BAN
2 - 4
BOT
12%
21%
67%
|
82 | 54 | 28 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 2012 |
BOT
0 - 0
GUA
74%
16%
10%
|
82 | 68 | 14 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 2012 |
BOA
1 - 1
BOT
15%
21%
64%
|
82 | 56 | 26 | 0 |