Conmebol Sudamericana Final
Global 2-3
Flamengo vs Independiente analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.5%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.8%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.1%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
24.6%
Draw
0-0
7.1%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.6%
23%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
7.1%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.8%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Flamengo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Dec. 2017 |
IND
2 - 1
FLA
46%
27%
27%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 2017 |
VIT
1 - 2
FLA
37%
26%
37%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2017 |
JUN
0 - 2
FLA
39%
27%
33%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 2017 |
FLA
1 - 2
SAN
49%
25%
26%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 2017 |
FLA
2 - 1
JUN
61%
22%
17%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Independiente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Dec. 2017 |
ARS
1 - 2
IND
24%
27%
48%
|
85 | 71 | 14 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 2017 |
IND
2 - 1
FLA
46%
27%
27%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 2017 |
IND
3 - 1
LIB
57%
25%
18%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 2017 |
RAC
0 - 1
IND
44%
27%
30%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 2017 |
LIB
1 - 0
IND
34%
28%
39%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |