Lepel vs Smolevichy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
13.3%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
+3
0.9%
2-0
1.6%
3-1
1.2%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
3.2%
1-0
3.4%
2-1
3.8%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
8.9%
17.5%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
8%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
17.5%
69.3%
Win probability
2.4
Expected goals
0-1
8.4%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
3.7%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.5%
0-2
10.1%
1-3
7.7%
2-4
2.2%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
20.3%
0-3
8%
1-4
4.6%
2-5
1%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
13.8%
0-4
4.8%
1-5
2.2%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0%
-4
7.5%
0-5
2.3%
1-6
0.9%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
3.3%
0-6
0.9%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
1.3%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lepel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 May. 2021 |
FKL
3 - 1
NIT
66%
18%
16%
|
28 | 18 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2021 |
SEN
2 - 0
FKL
62%
19%
19%
|
30 | 36 | 6 | -2 |
| 08 May. 2021 |
MIO
0 - 3
FKL
62%
19%
19%
|
28 | 38 | 10 | +2 |
| 01 May. 2021 |
FKL
2 - 3
MIO
28%
22%
50%
|
29 | 37 | 8 | -1 |
Matches
Smolevichy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 May. 2021 |
AUT
1 - 3
SMO
33%
23%
44%
|
50 | 39 | 11 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2021 |
SMO
0 - 1
FKU
54%
22%
24%
|
51 | 48 | 3 | -1 |
| 08 May. 2021 |
VIL
0 - 5
SMO
10%
16%
74%
|
51 | 19 | 32 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2021 |
VIL
0 - 3
SMO
8%
17%
75%
|
51 | 20 | 31 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 2020 |
SMO
0 - 3
SLA
22%
23%
55%
|
52 | 65 | 13 | -1 |