Ferrymead Bays vs Nelson Suburbs analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35%
Win probability
1.71
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.8%
3-0
2.2%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
4.8%
2-0
3.9%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
0.1%
+2
10.3%
1-0
4.6%
2-1
7.5%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
17.4%
21.7%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
7.1%
3-3
2.6%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
21.7%
43.3%
Win probability
1.92
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
4.6%
3-4
1.2%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
19.5%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
5.3%
2-4
2.2%
3-5
0.5%
4-6
0.1%
-2
13%
0-3
3.1%
1-4
2.6%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
6.7%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
2.8%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0.1%
-5
1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
25
5º
6º
5º
29
1º
4º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
47 | 47 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
45 | 45 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 41 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
29 | 32 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
25 | 25 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
24 | 24 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
19 | 19 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
14 | 14 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
11 | 11 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
1 | 1 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ferrymead Bays
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
SUF
2 - 4
FER
8%
14%
78%
|
16 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2024 |
FER
0 - 3
COA
16%
18%
66%
|
17 | 27 | 10 | -1 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
FCT
1 - 4
FER
11%
15%
74%
|
17 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
FER
3 - 2
DUN
52%
21%
27%
|
17 | 16 | 1 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2024 |
FER
3 - 5
COA
21%
19%
61%
|
18 | 26 | 8 | -1 |
Matches
Nelson Suburbs
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
NSF
2 - 2
NOM
53%
20%
27%
|
18 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
CAS
6 - 2
NSF
90%
7%
3%
|
18 | 35 | 17 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2024 |
NSF
5 - 1
UOC
87%
9%
5%
|
18 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 2024 |
NSF
4 - 4
SUF
89%
8%
4%
|
18 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| 28 Jun. 2024 |
COA
2 - 2
NSF
69%
17%
14%
|
18 | 26 | 8 | 0 |