Copa do Brasil 1/32
Global 2-1
Ferroviário vs Vila Nova analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
18.5%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.3%
2-0
2.7%
3-1
1.6%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.6%
1-0
5.6%
2-1
5%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
12.3%
22.2%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.2%
59.3%
Win probability
1.88
Expected goals
0-1
11.2%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.5%
0-2
10.5%
1-3
6.2%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
18.2%
0-3
6.6%
1-4
2.9%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
10%
0-4
3.1%
1-5
1.1%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4.3%
0-5
1.2%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.5%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.5%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ferroviário
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 2018 |
FER
1 - 3
FOR
34%
25%
41%
|
50 | 58 | 8 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 2018 |
FER
0 - 0
GLO
69%
19%
13%
|
50 | 43 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2018 |
FER
1 - 0
GUA
75%
16%
9%
|
50 | 39 | 11 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2018 |
SPO
3 - 3
FER
82%
13%
5%
|
50 | 74 | 24 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2018 |
MAR
1 - 2
FER
25%
25%
50%
|
49 | 37 | 12 | +1 |
Matches
Vila Nova
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 2018 |
ATL
1 - 1
VIL
52%
25%
24%
|
66 | 69 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 2018 |
VIL
2 - 2
JEC
49%
26%
25%
|
66 | 62 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2018 |
VIL
1 - 1
RIO
75%
18%
8%
|
66 | 44 | 22 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2018 |
VIL
1 - 0
ANA
73%
19%
9%
|
66 | 49 | 17 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2018 |
IPO
1 - 1
VIL
11%
20%
69%
|
67 | 48 | 19 | -1 |