Ferroviário vs Horizonte analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
17.7%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.3%
2-0
2.3%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
4.5%
1-0
4.4%
2-1
4.9%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.4%
20.1%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20.1%
62.2%
Win probability
2.13
Expected goals
0-1
8.9%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.7%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.3%
0-2
9.5%
1-3
7%
2-4
2%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
18.8%
0-3
6.7%
1-4
3.7%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.1%
-3
11.4%
0-4
3.6%
1-5
1.6%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
5.5%
0-5
1.5%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.2%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-12%
+24%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ferroviário
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar. 2012 |
FER
3 - 2
GUA
27%
24%
49%
|
39 | 53 | 14 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2012 |
FOR
4 - 1
FER
81%
13%
7%
|
39 | 60 | 21 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2012 |
FER
0 - 1
CRA
39%
25%
37%
|
41 | 46 | 5 | -2 |
| 12 Feb. 2012 |
GUA
3 - 2
FER
60%
21%
19%
|
41 | 49 | 8 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2012 |
FER
0 - 1
ICA
18%
22%
61%
|
42 | 59 | 17 | -1 |
Matches
Horizonte
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Feb. 2012 |
HOR
0 - 1
GUA
62%
21%
17%
|
56 | 49 | 7 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2012 |
HOR
3 - 1
ITA
69%
18%
13%
|
55 | 43 | 12 | +1 |
| 23 Feb. 2012 |
GUA
2 - 4
HOR
37%
24%
40%
|
54 | 54 | 0 | +1 |
| 17 Feb. 2012 |
GUA
1 - 0
HOR
30%
23%
48%
|
55 | 49 | 6 | -1 |
| 12 Feb. 2012 |
HOR
5 - 0
ICA
35%
25%
41%
|
54 | 59 | 5 | +1 |